In America, there are two factors
which go into who is elected president.
The popular vote and the Electoral College vote. The popular vote consist votes from the
citizens. In each state, citizens,
during elections, can go to their designated voting booths and cast a vote for
which ever president they choose to support.
The other vote is the Electoral College vote. The controversy with the Electoral College,
brought about by the loss of Hilary Clinton has caused many to question its
relevance. In 2016 Hilary loss the
Electoral College vote but had more than 3 million popular votes than Trump[1]. This sparked outrage amongst the Americans,
brining about about a modern political system that is shallow. The exchanges between Biden and Trump are
bitter and rude. This type of
confrontation has deemed people to believe that what is transpiring is more
than ever entertainment rather than politics.
What is clear here however, is the fact of the matter that the American
citizen is who is losing as a result. The
Electoral College is the vote that consist of delegates from each state who are
appointed by their state legislators.
When a citizen casts a vote, the popular vote, they are voting for this
candidate who then votes on the president.
The idea of the Electoral College is set forth in the Constitution. Each state receives the same amount of
delegates despite its small or large population. There are in total 538 votes in the Electoral
College and an absolute majority of at least 270 is required to win[2]. Political parties in each state nominate
these delegates based on their loyalty to the parties.
According
to Bloomberg, Biden is predicted to win the electoral college vote. They gather data from a poll aggregator which
indicated that Bidens chances of winning this vote were high, so much so that
they predict he will win 352 Electoral College votes[3]. It is important however, to be weary of these
predictions because in 2016, Hilary was expected to win however, the media were
wrong with their projections. Biden apparently
holds an advantage in swing states.
Swing states “also known as battleground states or purple states, are highly competitive states that have historically swung between voting
for different parties in presidential elections[4].” The swing states for this election are as
follows; Florida, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin[5]. In Florida, The Democrats are known to hold
the region from Miami to Palm Beach, while Republicans hold the north and
southwest portions of the state[6]. Florida is known for being purple, sometimes
they cast their vote for the Democrats at others the Republicans. What is important in this state is that it
consist of a diverse community. There is
a large Hispanic community in which presidential candidates must cater to, to
win this state. Currently, Biden has a
lead in this state. As for Michigan, the
polls reveal that Trump has a minimal lead on Biden. Although there is this lead, traditionally,
Detroit is expected to vote for Biden as they did for Hilary. There is a large black community in Detroit
which Biden has campaigned for in various churches around the city. Biden appeals to these people because of his working-class
roots. Arizona was once a key state for
the Republicans, however, as of late it’s become an uncertainty. They have a large Hispanic population that
sides with the Democrats. Current polls
reveal that Biden is up 2.7 points in this state. Health care and education are top priorities
in Bidens platform, while Immigration is a top priority in Trumps campaign[7]. This could very well workout to Bidens
advantage in gaining the independent citizens votes. In North Carolina, Biden leads with 2.7
points. This state is very important to
both parties as Trump had previously won this state in 2016 because of the
rural counties that decided to support him.
Biden has been campaigning this state online because of the fear of
COVID 19. President Donald Trump on the
other hand, frequents the state to ensure their support. In 2016, Trump barely won Pennsylvania. This time around however, it is projected
that Biden has the lead with 7.0 points ahead of the president. It is likely that Biden will earn the support
of this state as he is a Scranton native.
Lastly, Wisconsin. This state
goes back and forth between the Democrats and the Republicans. They supported Trump heavily in 2016 as the
rural voters detested Hilary. Biden
currently has the lead in this state with over 6.1 points. With these swing states explained, it becomes
very evident that this is the reason why Biden may win the Electoral College
vote while Trump, I believe will win the popular vote.
A base is a demographic of people
that are forecasted to vote for a particular election candidate. Biden’s base consist of older voters. He has wide spread support from both whites
and non-whites. He has had issues with
women in the past where numerous whistle blowers attempted to expose him. Biden is quoted as saying, “If we give Donald Trump eight years in the White House, he will forever
and fundamentally alter the character of this nation, who we are, and I cannot
stand by and watch that happen[8].” He also served as Vice president during
Obamas presidency. It is likely that
many of Obama’s followers will vote for Biden.
Trumps base mainly consist of conservative Republicans. Trumps base currently consist largely of,” whites without a college degree
and rural voters[9].” He lost a lot of educated professionals as a
result of what the media deems his mishandling of the COVID crisis. Trump also lost some supporters because he deployed the
military on several protestors in various cities. Like Biden, Trump has had
problems with women as he is labelled a misogynist by some. The most recent scandal involved Trump paying
hush money to a porn actor. This caused
a further loss of support. Trump is the
45 and current president of the United States of America.
Blue
states are those that predominantly vote for the Democrats whereas red states
who then vote for Republicans.
Traditionally the Blue states are as follows: California, Connecticut,
Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New
Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington D.C., and
Washington[10]. The aforementioned states construct what is
commonly referred to as, “the blue wall.”
These states have historic allegiance to the Democratic Party. The reason for the continued support is
because the Democratic party is more liberal, leaning towards the left side of
the political spectrum. The Democrats
prioritize such policy as “social/ economic equality, environmental protection,
affordable education, universal health care, equal opportunities for everyone,[11]”
etc. As with the, “blue wall,” there is
also the, “red wall.” These comprise of states that lean towards the
Republicans. Some states that have
consistently supported the Republicans are as follows; Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, West Virginia, North Dakota, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama and Nebraska[12] to name a few.
There are many issues in which each party is promoting. These political issues can make or break a
candidate. One policy that Biden
supports is returning the USA to a leadership role in relation to Climate
change. Clearly Trumps refusal of the Paris
Agreement has caused many countries to distance themselves from Americans. Climate change is an important issue that
will ensure that the future generations have a clean environment to be able to be
able to live in. Many climate disasters
such as droughts, heatwaves, famines are said to be caused directly from green
house gas emissions. Biden aims to
support green initiates and this is a main aspect of his platform. Another strength of Bidens platform is his desire
to rekindle the relationships of Americas Allies. This is important because collective change
needs to occur if anything is to be accomplished in the global change. Matters such as handling COVID, climate change,
immigration, poverty, etc. all need a collaborative
effort to solve. Biden will strengthen existing
treaties such as NATO in an effort to be able to fix American relations which
Trump has destroyed. The third strength
of Bidens Platform is his hope to fix problems with rogue regimes such as North
Korea, Afghanistan and Iran through diplomacy.
He blames Trump for giving too much leverage
to North Korean leader Kim Jung Un. He
wants to bring home troops from Afghanistan.
HE also would like to renter negotiations with Iran regarding their
nuclear program. Now that Bidens
strengths have been discussed, it is necessary to explore Trumps platform. Trump’s strength is that he is focused on the
economy. He wants to open up American
business despite the risks involved with COVID 19. He will therefore get a lot of his support
from many business owners and corporations as many are eager to return to
business as usual. Another strength that
Trumps platform has is regarding the working class. HE aims to bring back business and
corporation into the country. He encourages
companies to avoid offshoring their operations which would therefore bring jobs
to the many American citizens in need. A
final strength of Trumps platform is the construction of the border between USA
and Mexico. They have already
constructed 265 miles[13]. This proves that Trump does what he says and
is a good indication that his practicality on this matter will transfer over to
other policy.
[1] Park,
A., “A Guide to How the Electoral College Works,” Yahoo (2020). Retrieved from: https://news.yahoo.com/guide-electoral-college-works-184000963.html?guccounter=1
[2] Park,
A., “A Guide to How the Electoral College Works,” Yahoo (2020). Retrieved from: https://news.yahoo.com/guide-electoral-college-works-184000963.html?guccounter=1
[3] Bershidsky,
L., “Biden Now Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes: Five Thirty Eight,” Bloomberg (2020). Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/biden-now-predicted-to-win-352-electoral-votes-fivethirtyeight
[4] Rotondi,
J., “What Are Swing States and Why Are They Critical in US Elections?” History
(2020). Retrieved from: https://www.history.com/news/swing-states-presidential-elections
[5] Gilbert,
C., “These 6 swing states are pivotal ….”
USA Today (2020). Retrieved
from: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/10/12/battleground-states-white-house-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania-arizona-florida-north-carolina/3497599001/
[6] Anderson,
Z., “Florida is a swing state again…” Herald Tribune (2020). Retrieved from: https://www.heraldtribune.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/12/donald-trump-and-joe-biden-tied-florida-americas-largest-swing-state-and-key-battleground/5802371002/
[7] Hansen,
R., “Arizona was once a sure bet…” AZCentral (2020). Retrieved from: https://www.azcentral.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/10/12/arizona-battleground-state-hispanic-vote-maricopa-phoenix-trump-biden/5818345002/
[8] Glueck,
K., :Joe Biden.” NYTimes (2020).
Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/joe-biden.html
[9] Enten,
H., “These are signs Trump’s base is leaving him….” CNN (2020). Retrieved from: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/politics/trump-polling-coronavirus/index.html
[10] Cirjak,
A., “States That Have Consistently Remained Democratic.” World Atlas
(2020). Retrieved from: https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/states-that-have-consistently-remained-democratic.html
[11] Cirjak,
A., “States That Have Consistently Remained Democratic.” World Atlas
(2020). Retrieved from: https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/states-that-have-consistently-remained-democratic.html
[12] World
Population Review., “Most Republican States 2020.” World Population Review (2020). Retrieved from: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/most-republican-states
[13] Reuters. “Where Biden and Trump stand on key issues.” Reuters (2020). Retrieved from: https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/POLICY/ygdpzwarjvw/
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