SCHOLAR: 25 YEARS FORWARD USA V CHINA

China and America have been at odds in contemporary history.  China has been making several moves which could suggest they could ascertain hegemony.  America on the other hand, has been the wealthiest nation since the 1800’s[1].  Both countries are engaged in a trade war.  Both are considered valuable trading partners.  However, only one will ascertain the position of global hegemon.  Hegemony can be defined as a form of leadership where one ascertains dominance over others[2].  Hegemony is really about influence.  Both countries have different spheres of influence.  China considers its sphere of influence south east Asia.  However, America has isolated China through partnerships with the ASEAN nations.  The trade with nations in this area is highly profitable.  America’s sphere of influence is however, the spreading of western values across the globe.  In an effort to combat this, China has developed the Belt and Road initiative which stretches throughout Europe, Africa and Asia.  As it becomes evident, these two countries are neck and neck in competition.  In order for one nation to rise above the other one must falter or let their guard down.  To determine who is going to best the other in the next 25 years, specific criteria will be explained so that a sound prediction can be made. 

The fall of civilizations occurs through several factors.  First and foremost a degradation of morality occurs.  This degradation of morality caused by luxury and decadence causes uncontrollable social movements.  Social decay is a primary factor as to why the Romans fell[3].  Other factors include warfare.  Such is the case with WW2 and the fall of German power.  Another is epidemic or disease such is the case with the Aztec civilization and salmonella[4].  Nevertheless more specifically, the fall of nations are specifically caused by the following, “uncontrollable population movements; new epidemic diseases; failing states leading to increased warfare; collapse of trade routes leading to famine; and climate change[5].”  Using the aforementioned as a template, China and America are going to be analyzed.

The first criteria by which civilizations collapse is, uncontrollable population movements.  America has contention in their southern border.  The Trump administration elected to create a large wall separating itself from Mexico.  The American border issue has not been a priority for the oncoming Biden administration.  In fact, after the election, large uncontrolled migrant hopefuls flooded the southern border.  Kamal Harris was put in charge of rectifying the issue and some feel that she isn’t doing enough[6].  China has the opposite issue.  Their wealthy Chinese citizens are leaving the country in hordes.  China has been attempting to rectify the solution by aggressively promoting the benefits of living in China[7].  The wealthy leaving a country causes a loss of purchasing power or capital.  This could very well contribute to China’s demise.  They must work to make China more appealing to all their citizens. 

A new epidemic diseases is the second criteria by which civilizations collapse.  In this modern age, China was the epicenter for the COVID virus[8].  Wuhan put themselves on the map with this virus.  This has sensationalized the city.  Various health policy have been enacted by business to prevent the spread.  The COVID virus decimated the Chinese economy however, they have recovered well.  However, beyond China’s border, a residual effect is still continuing.  The economies of the world have been significantly implicated by this virus.  Many industries are on restrictions that prevent them from doing business.  The objective of overcoming this disease is the availability of vaccines.  This will help to speed up the rate of recovery so that countries can continue to conduct business and thus aid to contribute to the local economy.  America on the other hand, has an epidemic involving, obesity which leads to diabetes, stroke and heart attack.  As mentioned, decadence and luxury are this diseases precursor.  “1 in 5 deaths in the U.S. each year”[9] are caused by this disease.  America needs to focus on balancing consumption otherwise they stand to loose one of the reasons people immigrate to its country, mating.  In fact, western nations have the highest amount of hopeful immigrants going into their shores.  It is the values that the west hold but secondary, is the possibility for intimacy.  If the west wants to continue to have their audience, they need to rectify their issue of decadence. 

The issue of failing states leading to increased warfare is a major factor affecting the fall of civilizations.  China has contention in the South China Sea wherein they are surrounded by hostility[10].  ASEAN nations have the ability to rally and band together.  To add insult to injury, many of them are being protected by the USA.  The issue brewing in the South China Sea can very well spell a world war.  America entered Iraq because of the fact that there were apparently weapons of mass destruction.  Years passed and none were ever found[11].  America also initiated sanctions with Iran as a result of nuclear weapons facilities.  The EU and Iran have rallied against America to lift such sanctions[12].  Further, there is contention with Russia resulting from the annex of Crimea.  The USA has imposed such sanctions as travel bans[13].  American has a lot of partners but they also have their fair share of hostile enemies.  According to President Eisenhower, the military industrial complex, keeping America at war is very dangerous[14].  America should head caution.

Another factor of a fall is the collapse of trade routes.  Both China and America have trading partners.  China has the Belt and Road Initiative which stretches throughout the east.  It seeks to “improve connectivity and cooperation on a transcontinental scale[15].”  This project is a the foundation by which China can ascertain hegemony in the east.  America’s trade is however more global.  NATO is a force to be reckon with.  Despite Russia dissolving the Warsaw Pact, NATO has persisted[16].  NATO members share an alliance which is currently unmatched on a global scale. 

The last factor for collapse is climate change.  China is experiencing drought in several parts of its country.  They have rerouted waterways causing upset neighbors[17].  Similar to how Egypt protects the Nile, these disputes related to water could cause war.  During the Trump administration, the USA withdrew from the Paris Agreement[18].  Climate change is an existential threat by which America should take seriously.  In fact there are various places in the USA which could significantly be implicated.  These are “California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas and Washington[19]”.  This could cause mass uncontrolled movement of people which as mentioned earlier is a factor that causes collapse. 

With these factors noted it becomes clear that preventing collapse is necessary to ascertain hegemony.  In fact, all of these factors affect the rate of economic growth of a country.  U.S. GDP growth rate for 2019 was 2.33%, 2018, 2.93%, 2017, 2.37% and 2016 at 1.64%[20]  China on the other hand, was 6.11% in 2019, 2018 at 6.75%, 2017, 6.95% and 2016 at 6.85%[21]  However as it stands the 2019 nominal GDP for the USA is $21.43 trillion assuming 24.41% of the global economy and China respectively is at $14.34 trillion with 16.34% share of the global economy[22].  From an economic stand point, the USA needs to continuously innovate in order to keep their hegemony and as they ascertain more of a market share in the global economy, there will be less opportunity for them to take advantage of, this therefore is the resistance to growth.  China has effective policy to ascertain such innovation.  Technology transfer policy allows China to mirror the innovation which leads to growth, however this will only be beneficial up until they ascertain equality with the USA at which point, China will have to create innovations on its own to ascertain growth.   

Asset reserves should also be considered when attempting to predict who will be the hegemon in 25 years.  China’s gold reserves are at 1948.31 tonnes[23] while the USA stands at 8133.46 tonnes[24] both as of 2020.  As it becomes evident, the USA has around 4 times more gold than China.  Gold is a commodity that retains economic value.  In fact before fiat currency, the USD was backed by gold. 

Another factor is foreign exchange reserves, India lifted itself from poverty as a result of foreign exchange.  China has 3,205.0 USD billion[25] while the USA is at 143 USD billion[26] both from 2021.  The pressing issue with currency is that the dollar is at risk of loosing its reserve status.  A potential war could loom as countries begin to replace the dollar.  For example, Venezuela has replaced their currency, one that is tied to the USD with bitcoin[27].  There is also the Russian and Chinese pushback of the USD.  These two countries have been partnering in an effort to refuse the USD[28].  Lastly, as fossil fuels become less demanded, the USD connection to petrol could be eliminated in 25 years as countries go green. 

With all these considerations, it becomes evident that China is making systemic attacks on the USA.  From the Belt and Road Initiative to technology transfer and currency, China could very well see hegemony in 25 years.  It is clear that the USA has more assets than China.  However, China’s rate of growth and it strength in foreign exchange is indicating that there is a possibility that they will at least command more than 30% of the global economy before 25 years.  They have the population and the capabilities to supersede the USA.  However, the question is not who will be hegemon in 25 years, it is, how would these facts affect our liberal western values?  Shouldn’t the USA be preparing contingency in the event that this happens.  Western nations need to mobilize to protect people from authoritarianism.  Lastly, a factor that prevents collapse according to Ian Morris is the control of violence[29].  Both America and China have violence in their country.  China has violence in Hong Kong and Tibet, etc.  America a gun bearing country has social movements which cause violence as is the case with the marginalization of minority races.  Violence needs to be controlled as a potential transfer of power occurs.  With these facts detailed.  It could be said that China is going to overtake USA as the global force or power.  What is certain here is that America is currently the de facto hegemon since the 1800’s and that is a tremendous task to outdo.  It remains to be seen how each country responds to the issues specified herein.

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[1] Ross Pink, Foreign Policy- Major Powers.  POLI3147. KPU (2020).

[2] Ross Pink, Foreign Policy- Major Powers.  POLI3147.  KPU (2020).

[3] Lamb, R.  “Why do civilizations collapse?”  How Stuff Works (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/civilizations-collapse.htm

[4]Pruitt, S.   “Did Salmonella Kill Off the Aztecs?”  History (2017).  Retrieved from:  https://www.history.com/news/did-salmonella-kill-off-the-aztecs

[5] Hutt, R.  “Why do civilizations collapse?”  World Economic Forum (2016).  Retrieved from:  https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/why-do-civilizations-collapse

[6] Doman, S.  “Kamala Harris has gone 13 days without a news conference since being tapped for border crisis role.”  Fox News (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-no-press-conference-border-crisis

[7] Frank, R.  “More than a third of Chinese millionaires want to leave China.”  CNBC (2018).  Retrieved from:  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/more-than-a-third-of-chinese-millionaires-want-to-leave-china.html#:~:text=Many%20rich%20Chinese%20are%20leaving%20China%20for%20better,total%20assets%20of%20Chinese%20millionaires%2C%20the%20report%20said.

[8] Mcneil, S.  “Wuhan, China’s coronavirus epicenter, ends 76-day lockdown- National.”  Global News (2020).  Retrieved from:  https://globalnews.ca/news/6792188/china-wuhan-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown/

[9] Newman, K.  “Obesity in America:  A Guide to the Public Health Crisis.”  Healthiest Communities (2019).  Retrieved from:  https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2019-09-19/obesity-in-america-a-guide-to-the-public-health-crisis

[10] Civils Daily.  “Contention over the South China Sea.”  (2015).  Retrieved from:  https://www.civilsdaily.com/story/contention-and-claims-to-south-china-sea/

[11] Mathews, D.  “No, really, George W.  Bush lied about WMDs.”  Vox (2016).  Retrieved from:  https://www.vox.com/2016/7/9/12123022/george-w-bush-lies-iraq-war

[12] Islamic Republic News Agency.  “EU says JCPOA members unite to lift sanctions on Iran.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://en.irna.ir/news/84286432/EU-says-JCPOA-members-unite-to-lift-sanctions-on-Iran

[13] US Department of State.  “Ukraine and Russia Sanctions.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://www.state.gov/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions/

[14] History.  “President Eisenhower warns of military-industrial complex.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/eisenhower-warns-of-military-industrial-complex

[15] World Bank.  “Belt and Road Initiative.”  (2018).  Retrieved from:  https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative

[16] History.  “Warsaw Pact ends.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/warsaw-pact-ends

[17] Peyton, W.  “China’s Water Ambitions May Leave Neighbors Dry.”  The News Lens (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://international.thenewslens.com/article/132352

[18] McGrath, M.  “Climate change:  US formally withdraws from the Paris agreement.”  BBC (2020).  Retrieved from:  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743

[19] Safe Home.  “Best and Worst States for Climate Change.  (2019).  Retrieved from:  https://www.safehome.org/climate-change-statistics/

[20] Macrotrends.  “U.S. GDP Growth Rate 1961 – 2021.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-growth-rate#:~:text=U.S.%20GDP%20Growth%20Rate%20-%20Historical%20Data%20,%20%20-1.27%25%20%2055%20more%20rows%20

[21] Macrotrends.  “China GDP Growth Rate 1961 – 2021.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-growth-rate#:~:text=China%20GDP%20Growth%20Rate%20-%20Historical%20Data%20,%20%20-0.19%25%20%2055%20more%20rows%20

[22] Silver, C.  “Countries by GDP:  The Top 25 Economies in the World.”  Investopedia (2020).  Retrieved from:  https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

[23] Trading Economics.  “China Gold Reserves | 2000 – 2020 Data |.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves

[24] Trading Economics.  “United States Gold Reserves | 2000 – 2020 Data |.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gold-reserves

[25] Take Profit.  “China Foreign Exchange & Gold Reserves 2021.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://take-profit.org/en/statistics/foreign-exchange-reserves/china/

[26] Take Profit.  “United States Foreign Exchange & Gold Reserves 2021.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://take-profit.org/en/statistics/foreign-exchange-reserves/united-states/

[27] Financial Content.  “Venezuela Replaces National Currency with Bitcoin.”  (2021).  Retrieved from:  https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/news/read/41173719/venezuela_replaces_national_currency_with_bitcoin

[28] Lossan, A.  “Why are Russia and China ditching the U.S. dollar?”  Russia Beyond (2020).  Retrieved from:  https://www.rbth.com/business/332673-russia-china-us-dollar-america

[29] Morris, I.  “Incredible Archeological Discoveries” World Economic Forum (2016).  Retrieved from:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxieVARtZ7c